Forman & Son MD Lance Forman looks ahead to the General Election


- Credit: Carmen Valino - on shift

2015 is here and another general election is months away.

As in any general election, there are always surprises, people don’t always vote they way they’ll tell you when they’re polled.

When it comes down to the X on the ballot paper, nine times out of 10, people vote with their pockets.

The unknown element this time round will be the Ukip supporters and whether they will remain loyal on polling day.

So here’s what will happen; Cameron and the Conservatives will win a straight majority. Ukip will divide Labour and the Tories will rule. Very few people who voted Conservative last time round will switch allegiance. The only Tory voters who are unhappy with Cameron are those who felt he was not strong enough on Europe and whose efforts to cut the deficit were insufficient, but such voters have nowhere else to turn. Ukip, a party whose principal aim of removing ourselves from the undemocratic clutches of Europe was attractive to the libertarian Tory right but that appeal is on the wane.

As Ukip’s narrative switches to immigration in order to attract British working class support, such a party becomes less attractive to those whose principles were based on freedom, be it free markets or freedom of movement. Conservative Ukip sympathisers will return to the fold.

But what of Labour? They are the ones who will be split by Ukip, as indeed they have been split by the SNP north of the border. The SNP are unlikely to form a coalition with Labour, who they see as the devil incarnate having formed an alliance with the Conservatives against Scottish independence.

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Ukip will attract the aspirational working class voter who mistakenly sees their job or wage rate threatened by imported labour from across the channel. They certainly won’t be voting for Miliband, who they see as totally out of touch with their concerns; or, more to the point, out of touch, full stop.

Oh, I almost forgot the Lib Dems. So will everyone else.

Happy 2015. More from Lance.